Here's the Latest on the Bull Market in Housing

The Weekend Edition is pulled from the daily Stansberry Digest. The Digest comes free with a subscription to any of our premium products.
 
 Is it time to start worrying about the housing market again?
 
According to one notable market strategist, the answer is a resounding "yes."
 
Back in 2005, James Stack – president of market-research firm InvesTech Research – was one of the few money managers to publicly warn of a crash in home prices, shortly before the peak.
 
Today, Stack believes the housing market is getting overheated once again. As he warned in a recent interview with Bloomberg…
 
It is 2005 all over again in terms of the valuation extreme, the psychological excess and the denial. People don't believe housing is in a bubble and don't want to hear talk about prices being a little bit bubblish.
 Longtime DailyWealth readers know Steve disagrees…
 
Yes, it's true that home prices in the U.S. have rebounded since the financial crisis. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, median sales prices are up more than 50% over the last nine years – from $208,400 in early 2009 to $315,200 late last year.
 
But Steve believes we're still in the "middle innings" of the bull market in real estate… And he says home prices could rally much higher from here.
 
So why the difference of opinion? In short, Steve says it's a simple story of supply and demand.
 
After the housing bubble burst a decade ago, investors wanted nothing to do with real estate. Prices collapsed. And homebuilders stopped building homes.
 
Eventually, the supply dwindled to the point where demand began to exceed it. Investors started to buy homes again, and prices have taken off since.
 
 But Steve says the market is not back to "normal" yet…
 
Despite the rebound in prices, Steve notes the supply/demand imbalance has not improved. Instead, it's actually getting worse
 
According to the latest data, inventories of existing homes for sale fell to just 3.2 months of supply in December – the lowest level of housing supply in decades.
 
And while "housing starts" – the number of new single-family homes being built – have been rising steadily, they're still below "normal." As Steve's research team noted in a private e-mail recently…
 
Even after hitting new 52-week highs, housing starts are far from an all-time high. Take a look…
 
Housing starts have soared since the bottom in 2009… But they are still historically low. In fact, housing starts would have to nearly double to get back to 2005 levels.
 
Today's housing starts are slightly below their long-term average. And that's a good sign for higher prices.

 Of course, that's only one side of the argument…
 
Another factor to consider is housing demand. As you can see in the following chart, demand has steadily increased over the past several years…
 
 
 Together, supply and demand suggest significantly higher prices are likely…

 
But that's not all. In spite of the bullish fundamentals, Steve and his team also note that investor sentiment is on their side.
 
Last May, they recommended the iShares U.S. Home Construction Fund (ITB) to their True Wealth Systems subscribers. This fund holds a basket of nearly 50 housing-related stocks – like homebuilders D.R. Horton (DHI), Lennar (LEN), NVR (NVR), and Toll Brothers (TOL), as well as home-improvement companies like Home Depot (HD), Lowe's (LOW), and Sherwin-Williams (SHW) – so it's a great way to profit from a continued bull market.
 
But because ITB is a "open end" fund – meaning it can create or liquidate shares based on demand – it can also serve as a useful real-time indicator of investor interest. And it shows investors are still not excited about housing today. As they explained…
 
Since 2013, ITB's shares outstanding are down more than
40%. That tells us investors aren't interested in homebuilders, let alone euphoric.
 
Only when that narrative changes – when investors fall in love with homebuilders – could we getting close to a "bubble" in housing.
 
Until then, demand far exceeds supply… Investors continue to ignore the sector… And ITB shares are in a solid uptrend that shows no signs of slowing down.

True Wealth Systems subscribers are up almost 35% since Steve's recommendation last May. But he and his team remain bullish. In fact, with supply and demand relationship still "out of whack"… and with investors still not interested in the sector… Steve says the biggest gains are likely still ahead.
 
If you don't already own shares of ITB, Steve still rates them a "buy" today.
 
 Speaking of Steve's bullish calls… Regular DailyWealth readers know he has been practically begging folks to buy Chinese stocks since 2016.
 
Those who took his advice have done incredibly well… And you won't find a better example of that than the returns in shares of Chinese tech giant Tencent (TCEHY).
 
Subscribers are up more than 120% since Steve first recommended the stock in September 2016. And what was once an unknown Chinese firm is suddenly making front-page news…
 
On September 9, we noted that the company's WeChat Pay mobile-payment system had become a form of payment in Apple's (AAPL) App Store.
 
Days before, Tencent also announced that it had landed exclusive rights to stream 100 National Football League games. In mid-September, it became China's primary distributor and licensor of some of the world's largest music catalogs.
 
By November, Tencent's market cap surpassed that of social-media behemoth Facebook (FB), making it the fifth-largest publicly traded company in the world.
 
 Steve remains bullish on Tencent – and Chinese stocks, in general…
 
But he recently recommended a company he believes could become the "next Tencent." Only it's likely not for the reason you suspect…
 
You see this company is not a Chinese technology firm… In fact, it's not even a Chinese company at all. Instead, this firm shares what Steve believes is Tencent's biggest strength: a digital "ecosystem," which touches virtually every part of its users' lives. As Steve pointed out in the most recent issue of True Wealth
 
It took traveling to Beijing two summers ago for the light bulb to go on for me – I realized just how powerful and entrenched these ecosystems can be.
 
For example, if you want to call someone in Beijing, you don't dial their phone number anymore. You call them on Tencent's WeChat app. You don't use any other service.
 
Don't bother sending someone an e-mail in Beijing. It takes too long to hear back. Instead, message them on WeChat. You don't use any other service.
 
Want to pay for something in Beijing? You might not be able to use cash… You can simply pay on your phone – with either Tencent's or Alibaba's mobile-payment system. You don't use any other services.

 
And as Steve explained, these ecosystems can provide a powerful competitive advantage to the businesses that create them…

 
The crazy thing about these ecosystem-based businesses is that the customer doesn't want to leave them. Everyone else is using them, too. You don't want to force your friends to call you or message you on another app.
 
With these ecosystems, it's a winner-take-all type of thing… It doesn't matter who the No. 2 to Facebook is. The market leader is the only one that matters.
 
These ecosystem-style businesses could be the biggest stock market winners during the Melt Up. Apple does a great job keeping you in its ecosystem. So does Amazon. Facebook and Tencent are fantastic at it.

 Steve says the "next Tencent" has created a similar digital ecosystem…
 
Again, this company isn't based in China. And it's certainly not a U.S. firm. Instead, it is the largest and most dominant e-commerce company in more than a dozen different developing countries. As Steve explained…
 
[This company] is already the market leader [in these countries]. It is already the dominant ecosystem player. And this leader is doing the right things.
 
And what really gets me excited here is that the company's business model has shifted lately… [It's] adding additional "ecosystems."

Better yet, despite its dominant position already, the company is growing rapidly. And Steve says it still has plenty of growth ahead of it…
 
Revenues grew more than 60% in the most recent quarter, meaning that it's growing even faster than Tencent and Alibaba…
 
But this snowball is just starting to roll down the hill. Keep in mind, e-commerce only makes up 3% of retail sales in [these countries]. [This company] will likely maintain its dominant position as that 3% increases exponentially in the coming years – as it has all over the globe.
 
Tencent's stock market value is more than $500 billion. Meanwhile, [this company's] market value is just $15 billion. It could double today and still be the equivalent of a rounding error in Tencent's market value. There's plenty of upside from here.

Of course, it wouldn't be fair to Steve's subscribers to reveal this company today. But you can get instant access to all the details on the "next Tencent" in the January issue of True Wealth. Gain access to this recommendation with a 100% risk-free trial right here.
 
Regards,
 
Justin Brill
 
Editor's note: Steve's "Melt Up" thesis is going global… And he believes the "next Tencent" is certain to get swept up in it. In the latest issue of True Wealth, Steve explained why he believes this stock could easily double from here. You can read Steve's in-depth analysis – and all of his research – with a risk-free subscription to True Wealth. Learn more here.

Source: DailyWealth

'Buyer's Remorse' Is Losing You Money – Here's How to Beat It

 
Imagine you just bought a new TV. You take it home and excitedly set it up.
 
But a couple of days later, the thrill of the purchase is gone – and the doubting begins. "Should I have gotten the 44-inch instead of the 42-inch?" you ask yourself. "Should I have waited until 6D comes out next year?"
 
And then the worst question of all: "Was buying this a mistake?"
 
Whether it's buying a TV, a house, or an ocean cruise, spending a lot of money triggers a specific range of emotions known as "buyer's remorse." Controlling these emotions can mean the difference between making a good investment… and one that you'll both regret and lose money on…
 
It's the same sort of thing with buying shares. "Was my timing right?" "Did I just buy a lemon of a stock?" "Is the market about to collapse?"
 
And the real underlying question… "What if I lose money?"
 
Beating yourself up after buying something isn't going to change the fact that you made the purchase. And it may lead you to impulsively return a product (or sell a stock) that was, in fact, a well-reasoned and smart buy in the first place.
 
Another response to buyer's remorse is to immediately justify the purchase…
 
This is called "post-purchase rationalization." It makes us focus on the strengths (and overlook the faults) of what we bought.
 
Let's say that you buy that new TV – or stock – and then see a few weeks later that it's cheaper. Had you waited a few weeks, you could have bought the same TV – or stock – for less. Your brain will try to convince you that you needed to make the purchase at the higher price. (After all, you needed the new TV for the big game.)
 
With practice, we can convince ourselves that any purchase was the "right" one – no matter how flawed it really was.
 
It's a little like Stockholm Syndrome – the psychological condition when hostages feel sympathy for and attachment toward their kidnappers. In this case, the customer (the "hostage") is held captive by the product he buys (the "kidnapper"). And the buyer eventually convinces himself that he likes the product.
 
But justifying a trade that isn't working out can be just as damaging as selling off a good trade. If you refuse to accept that you've made a mistake, you can't learn a valuable lesson from the investment. And that can lead to bad buying decisions in the future.
 
Post-purchase rationalization might also keep you from following through on your stop loss – the price at which you plan to get out. Selling a losing stock is an acknowledgement of error. But if you're too caught up in explaining to yourself why the purchase was actually a good idea, you might forget the most important rule of investing: Don't lose money.
 
We act this way for a reason… Ownership leads to emotional attachment. We place a higher value on the things that belong to us – whether it's a house, a car, a dog, or a stock. Even selling a losing investment can be an emotional challenge.
 
Here are three ways to prevent buyer's remorse and post-purchase rationalization from affecting your investment decisions…
 
1.   Recognize your mistakes. In other words, know how to take a loss and make sure that you learn from the outcome. Examine exactly why a certain position lost you money, rather than convincing yourself that you were right and "the market" was wrong. (The market is never wrong: The investor who loses money believing that he knows more than the market is wrong.)
    
2.   Avoid impulse buying and selling. Researching a stock before you invest will help to reduce buyer's remorse, as you'll have concrete support for why you made the decision. You'll feel less need to rationalize the purchase. And you'll avoid selling unnecessarily based on a gut feeling that you were wrong in the first place.
    
3.   Follow your own discipline. Recognizing a bad trade in time might prevent a mildly negative position from turning into a monumental loss. If you hit your stop loss, sell.
Taking emotion out of the investment process is a critical ingredient for making money. Be objective, and don't let your feelings cloud your judgment.
 
Good investing,
 
Kim Iskyan
 
Steve's note: Right now, my close friend and mentor is "going public" with a powerful wealth-building secret… I'm talking about Kim's colleague Peter Churchouse. He has built a fortune on smart, well-reasoned investments in one corner of the market. And it's one of my favorite ways to put money to work… Click here for more details.

Source: DailyWealth

How the Unemployment Rate Predicts Stock Market Crashes

 
"In tonight's State of the Union address, President Donald Trump will surely brag about today's low unemployment rate," I said on Tuesday.
 
I was right. As the president said, jobless claims recently hit a 45-year low.
 
And as I explained in Tuesday's essay, we can learn a ton from the unemployment rate as stock investors…
 
Here are the three big things you need to know:
 
1.   When the unemployment rate is low, with more folks finding jobs (like today), stocks tend to bring in terrible returns going forward.
   
2.   When the unemployment rate is high, stocks tend to bring in great returns going forward.
   
3.   Unemployment has actually predicted the three major stock market downturns of the last 30 years.
I explained the first two points earlier this week.
 
But this last point is even more interesting…
 
It's true… The unemployment rate has predicted the last three major U.S. stock market busts: 1990, 2000, and 2008.
 
Interestingly, the unemployment rate itself isn't the indicator… What matters is the yearly percentage change in the unemployment rate.
 
You can see it in this chart. It compares the performance of the benchmark S&P 500 Index with the annual change in unemployment. Take a look…
 
As you can see, whenever the annual rate went up by as little as 5%, it was time to get extremely cautious. (For context, one example of a 5% change would be if the unemployment rate rose from 4% to 4.2% over 12 months.)
 
Earlier this week, I explained that low unemployment is actually a concern for stocks, based on history…
 
But we really don't want to own stocks when unemployment is on the rise. A rising trend in the unemployment rate has predicted the last three big falls in stocks over the last 30 years.
 
Where do we stand today?
 
The unemployment rate in the U.S. has been falling for nearly a decade. It peaked at 10% in October 2009 and sits at 4.1% as I write.
 
More importantly, that rate is still falling. It's down 13% over the last year. So this indicator is not signaling a stock market peak – yet.
 
Of course, this will change at some point. And a quick move to a higher unemployment rate will be a huge warning sign.
 
In short, this metric provides some great clues about where we are in the stock market…
 
Today, we are at a near-record low in unemployment. And if that number starts moving in the wrong direction – and quickly – then it will be a serious warning sign for stocks. We are not there yet.
 
Good investing,
 
Steve
 

Source: DailyWealth